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Bitcoin’s ‘Five-Year Bet’ Now Has an Official Winner Between Ben Horowitz and Felix Salmon - Bitcoin Exchange Guide

Bitcoin’s ‘Five-Year Bet’ Now Has an Official Winner Between Ben Horowitz and Felix Salmon - Bitcoin Exchange Guide submitted by ulros to fbitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin’s ‘Five-Year Bet’ Now Has an Official Winner Between Ben Horowitz and Felix Salmon

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Bitcoin bet: Why Felix Salmon will beat Ben Horowitz

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NPR podcast on bitcoin bet between Ben Horowitz (FB/twtr VC) and Felix Salmon (Reuters econ reporter)

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Bitcoin bet: Why Felix Salmon will beat Ben Horowitz

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Planet Money Episode 891: Who Won The Bet Over Bitcoin?

I don't know if anyone here listens to "Planet Money", a pop economics podcast by NPR. Their most recent episode was about widespread adoption of Bitcoin.
Specifically, it was about a bet between Ben Horowitz, a venture capitalist who believed that Bitcoin was on its way to becoming a widespread payment platform, and Felix Salmon, a finance journalist who thought it was going to go to zero. They made a bet 5 years ago, whether or not 10% of Americans would be using Bitcoin at least once a month, and they finally got the results today:
GOLDSTEIN: As promised, we went out and got Ipsos, a real polling firm, to ask 900-and-some Americans - a representative sample of Americans this question. Have you purchased anything using bitcoin as your payment in the last month? The percentage of Americans who said, yes, is three - three.
HOROWITZ: All right.
GOLDSTEIN: Now, they did ask those people - the people who said they had, they said, at what merchant did you make the purchase? And I have some of those answers. And it suggests that the 3 percent is a little high.
GOLDSTEIN: If you go down this list, somebody said Gaia Ethnobotanical, which I looked up - in fact, does accept bitcoin. Subway - I think some Subways accept bitcoin. But there's also a bunch that say - this one says Litecoin. A few say Coinbase, which is a bitcoin cryptocurrency exchange. So these people are using bitcoin to buy other cryptocurrency.
Horowitz ended up admitting to something that a lot of people on this sub have been saying for a while as well:
KESTENBAUM: That's what Ben thought would happen with bitcoin. He thought the code that powers bitcoin would just get better and better and, very quickly, it would obviously be this safer, faster, more private, cheaper way for people to buy stuff online. That did not happen.
GOLDSTEIN: No. Bitcoins just became so valuable that the people who worked on the system didn't want to make it any better. They just wanted to lock everything down and keep it the way it was.
HOROWITZ: I think that what happened with bitcoin is that there is kind of one very, very strong need among the kind of investors/miners, which is that the code and the meaning of the code would not change.
And Salmon, the guy who bet against Bitcoin, hits on the real paradox of Bitcoin:
SALMON: I - honestly, I was looking back. I mean, there were two things which I expected would happen which didn't happen. One is I expected the price would probably go to zero, and it didn't. It went way up and to the right.
And the other is that I expected that there would actually be use cases over the following five years that, even if people weren't using it to buy stuff in stores, and that was my side of the bet, I imagined it would be used for remittances, or, somewhere along the line, it would have evolved. Especially if it had grown to be worth thousands of dollars per bitcoin, then it would be used for something.
GOLDSTEIN: So it's more valuable and less useful than you thought.
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Bitcoin Betting. In an identical situation, venture capitalist Ben Horowitz is betting bitcoin skeptic Felix Salmon on the future of bitcoin. This bet also has to do with an article of clothing, but luckily no one has to eat anything. The bet states that by January 2019, a poll will be conducted on Americans. If 10% of Americans say that they have used bitcoin for a purchase within the past ... Yesterday, Dorian Nakamoto released an official statement via the Twitter feed of Reuters reporter Felix Salmon. In it, Nakamoto states that he unconditionally denies the Newsweek report, and that while he has worked as an engineer and programmer, he is not the man behind bitcoin.. Tellingly, Nakamoto also adds this statement: My prospects for gainful employment has been harmed because of the ... A few days ago, the value of all the bitcoins in the world blew past $1 billion for the first time ever. That’s an impressive achievement, for a purely virtual currency backed by no central bank or other authority. It’s also temporary: we’re in the middle of a bitcoin bubble right now, and it’s only a matter of time before the bubble bursts. Black Americans were undercounted in the 2000 and 2010 Censuses. We’re teaming with LDF to ensure everyone's voice is heard in 2020. Learn More 1) Felix Salmon has a nice analytic essay about the rise of Bitcoins and what they say about the future of currency. Here are two key passages: Here are two key passages:

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